A quote from Bloomberg: Strauss-Kahn Says Crisis Consequences Will Last Long Time “We will still have rising unemployment at least for a year,” [International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique] Strauss-Kahn said via videolink in an address to the Yalta European Strategy Conference from Washington. [...more]
The Real Time Economics blog at the WSJ discusses expectations for the Fed two day meeting that starts tomorrow: Expect Patience From the Fed (note: the statement will be released on Wednesday). No one expects a rate hike, and the main focus will be on the economic outlook and whether MBS purchases will slow. Last month, the FOMC statement noted "economic activity is leveling out", and the statement this month might be slightly more positive [...more]
I've been asked many times what people should do financially during a recession. My first answer has always been "Keep your job if you can!" Earlier this week, David Leonhardt at the NY Times wrote: Wages Grow for Those With Jobs, New Figures Show Even though unemployment has reached its highest level in 26 years, most workers have received a raise over the last year. [...more]
Professors Atif Mian and Amir Sufi (both University of Chicago Booth School of Business and NBER) published a new paper: The Household Leverage-Driven Recession of 2007 to 2009 This is related to their paper earlier this year: House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. [...more]
The DOL reports weekly unemployment insurance claims decreased to 550,000: In the week ending Sept. 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 550,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 576,000 [...more]
A frequent question is how do the 570,000 initial weekly unemployment claims, as reported by the Dept of Labor (DOL), correspond to the 216,000 in monthly job losses as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). [...more]
From the BLS : Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in August (-216,000), and the unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Although job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors in August, the declines have moderated in recent months. [...more]
Here are the August FOMC minutes . Economic outlook: In the forecast prepared for the August FOMC meeting, the staff's outlook for the change in real activity over the next year and a half was essentially the same as at the time of the June meeting [...more]
The DOL reports weekly unemployment insurance claims decreased to 570,000: In the week ending Aug. 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 570,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 580,000. The 4-week moving average was 566,250, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average of 571,000. [...more]
From Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart: The U.S. Economy and the Employment Challenge On the economic outlook: With respect to growth, my forecast envisions a return to positive but subdued gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the medium term weighed down by significant adjustments to our economy. Some of these adjustments are transitional in the sense that they impede the usual forces of recovery [...more]
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